NASCAR Cup Series

NASCAR Playoff Picture: Who's in, who's on the bubble, who must win

Updated Aug. 14, 2024 6:04 p.m. ET

The biggest concern of those fighting for a playoff spot in the NASCAR Cup Series is that a driver who isn't remotely in the mix vaults into the playoffs with an upset victory.

Hello, Austin Dillon. That is until Wednesday.

Dillon, who was 32nd in the standings entering Richmond, thought he put himself in the playoffs with a victory — albeit a controversial one — on Sunday, the 23rd race of the 26-race regular season. But NASCAR stripped him of the playoff berth for what it felt was going over the line of acceptable driving.

Following Richmond, three races remain to set the playoff field: Michigan, Daytona and Darlington.

The NASCAR playoffs consist of 16 drivers — the regular-season champion and then the next 15 drivers ranked by wins with ties broken by points.

With the top seven drivers in the standings all having at least one victory, the regular-season champion most likely will be one of the winners. Twelve drivers have won this year, meaning up to four spots could be available on points.

So who's in, who's on the bubble and who is at win-at-all-costs?

Those 12 drivers with wins who are in: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric.

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So let's get to the points:

There are five winless drivers who would be battling for the current four spots available solely on points.

Martin Truex Jr. has a 78-point edge on the cutline, with 60 points on Ty Gibbs, who is 15 points above Bubba Wallace.

Chris Buescher and Ross Chastain, tied in the standings, where if this was the end of the regular season a tiebreaker (best finish during the season) would come into play, are three points behind Wallace.

In other words, it's going to be a fight to the finish.

Buescher won at Michigan and Daytona last year, but those also are places where Wallace traditionally has run well. Gibbs still seeks his first career Cup win. Chastain is the driver with the most recent experience in playoff pressure situations, where he mostly has proven he can make things happen.

There are 17 other playoff-eligible drivers who pretty much face must-win situations: Austin Dillon, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Busch, Todd Gilliland, Josh Berry, Michael McDowell, Carson Hocevar, Noah Gragson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones, Ryan Preece, Daniel Hemric, Justin Haley, Corey LaJoie, John Hunter Nemechek, Harrison Burton and Zane Smith.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.